UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.