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Only two days before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.