Daily Killings in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The average number of daily homicides per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent government data. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have advised that homicide figures might not point to enhanced national security.

Significant Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded in these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the least figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Violent cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts cautioned that using murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.