American Armed Forces Deployment near Venezuelan Shoreline Stirs Memories of 1989 Panamanian Military Intervention
Via night vision gear, Michael Durant observed as 2 heavy precision explosives crashed onto the Panama's military base while he floated near the country's southern coast in a military aircraft.
"A gigantic explosion, coming by a boom ... comparable to the largest lightning strike you've ever experienced in your lifetime," the former US army aviator recalled of the initial salvo of the Battle of Rio Hato Air Base in December 1989.
Historical Parallels
The covert bomber blitzkrieg and following army special forces assault represented the beginning of the Panama invasion - aimed to remove Panama's military leader, General Noriega.
Durant and his colleagues had orders to seize the Panamanian Defense Force base to stop soldiers moving to the dictator's defense. Over the following period, the pilot and over 25,000 additional US military personnel pursued the autocrat, who eventually capitulated on January 3rd 1990.
"The dictator was a awful person ... and he had to be taken out," said Durant.
Current Military Deployments
Memories of Just Cause have returned in the past few weeks' time after President Trump ordered the most significant American military build-up in Latin America and the Caribbean Sea since that military intervention nearly four decades prior.
A significant portion of American naval assets - comprising the world's biggest naval vessel, the USS Gerald R Ford - have been sent to the region starting in last August, with strategic bombers and special forces seen off Venezuelan northern coast. Military strikes on reported narcotics boats in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea have resulted in the deaths of more than 60 people.
Stated vs Actual Objectives
Formally, the positioning of warships, Reaper unmanned aircraft and about 10,000 service personnel is a component of a campaign on Latin American drug traffickers who the administration claims of saturating the US with illegal substances. But numerous believe the administration's real objective is removing Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, just as President Bush ousted Noriega prior to he was tried and jailed in the United States.
Political Perspectives
Various members of Venezuela's political opposition appear eager for a repeat of the Panama operation, on an even more larger magnitude. The exiled political figure Leopoldo López lately stated endorsement for a US military action to oust Maduro, who is commonly thought to have stolen the previous presidential election.
"Not to be the bearer of bad news, but it seems like we are about to start on yet another regime change conflict, like, next week's time," announced Tucker Carlson last week, flagging the Iraq war as a key instance of the US's problematic record of government overthrows gone wrong.
"It rarely achieves its goals - but we are attempting it another time, apparently," Carlson added.
Public and Expert Perspective
A current poll found almost half of Americans resistant to utilizing armed intervention to oust Maduro with merely 18% approving.
Durant also had concerns, even though regarding the Panama operation the most accomplished mission of his 20-year military career. He was confident US troops could remove Maduro, as they did Noriega. "Our forces have substantial ability and great personnel. But is it justified risking all that at risk?" questioned Durant.
Before Just Cause, many of US troops were deployed in Panama, Durant commented, but the US has no equivalent footprint in the country.
Military Assessment
It was also unclear how effective Maduro's Venezuelan armed forces were of combating against an invasion. "That to me is the largest unknown factor," Durant said. "The Venezuelan military do good parades. But what can they truly do? Are they trained? Are they supported? Are they willing to combat? Are they faithful?"
Past Comparisons
Historian Grow, a researcher who wrote research about American presidents and Latin American Cold War interventions, saw "notable parallels" to previous military actions.
In 1988, on the brink of the Panama operation, the United States charged Noriega for narcotics smuggling - similar to they have with Maduro who lately had a $50m reward issued on his person for reportedly running a "drug trafficking" network. "Therefore ... they've established a suitable excuse if they opt to follow a armed path," Grow commented.
Possible Outcomes
"However I do not consider it's on the cards with this administration ... These individuals are not neocons. They're far more nationalist ... I just don't anticipate the US becoming engaged in a military occupation in the continent," Grow added, while he did not exclude "surgical strike unmanned warfare"
James Story, the US's chief official for the country from 2018 to 2023, additionally questioned a Panama-style attack was likely: "The United States always prefer superior power and it would require 100,000 forces - and that is not this administration's style."
Different Strategies
But the ex- ambassador - who originally viewed the administration's armed forces buildup sabre-rattling - now saw an eighty percent chance of "certain aggressive measure" on the country's soil in the coming 30 days, probably an air strike. "The level of assets that have been positioned in the zone suggest to me that we are going